Horserace Handicappers: Double Standard Edition

We all know who Nate Silver is by now. He moved on from crunching baseball numbers, and his Five Thirty Eight site is a national phenomenon and the electoral predictor of record. Until it isn't.

His calculations are based on science and variables, weighting of national and state polls, and historical precedents. He mixes it all in some sort of witch's brew which spits out a probability. Kind of like a sportsbook or a racetrack, hence the "horserace" metaphor.

Since summer, Silver has placed the probability of Obama's reelection as high as 80%, and no lower than 60%, even when Romney overtook the President in the Real Clear Politics national poll average.

As of the time of this posting, Nate Silver has the president's chance at reelection at 78.4%. Coincidentally, European megabook PaddyPower.com has Obama as a 1/3 favorite. And InTrade.com has Obama with a 69/31 advantage.

Does this mean that Silver is touting Obama? Yes and no. If you're at the craps table and you roll a 2, 3, 4, or 12, that equates to Romney's chances. The rest of the field would be for the President. It's math.

If Obama wins, especially as closely to Silver's model in 2008, the method will be borne out. If Romney wins, Silver loses all credibility. How could he have forecasted Obama so boldly when it was clearly a toss-up election?

Meanwhile on the other side...Dick Morris is an assclown.

His post on Real Clear Politics today is titled, "Here Comes The Landslide." Morris sees the "erosion" of Obama's ground in Ohio, New Hampshire, and Iowa.

He says that in the next few days the battle will move to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. That "these new swing states look to be the battleground," with even New Jersey and Oregon coming into play. And Morris also says the GOP will see a net gain of six senate seats.

How RCP gives the same amount of space as Silver to someone so clearly in the hinterlands is a farce. The airtime he gets is less for everyone else to breathe.

His electoral map has Romney somewhere in the 350 range. According to Silver's science, the chances of that would be somewhere along the lines of rolling snake eyes four times in a row.

Now as an American, I fully support Morris's right to spew nonsense. What he lacks is both credibility and accountability. On what does he base these projections that allows him to contribute to the national discourse? And if he's wrong, will he admit he was wrong on November 7th?

There's the double standard. Nate Silver's cottage industry needs success to be credible. Dick Morris can predict anything he wants with no consequence.

And in a nutshell, there's the difference in the two bases. One side follows the facts, the other side takes it on faith.

Who be GOP VP? Process of Elimination

It's Friday August 10. It's a week that Mr. Romney has seriously slipped in the polls (Obama +9 in latest FOX News sampling), and it appears more than ever he will need a "game changing" VP pick.

Since it is illegal to make wagers on such things in the US, except for Intrade (but call them contracts), we go to Ireland where you can gamble on anything. Here is the morning line from PaddyPower.com. 

The best way to approach this list is to forensically determine why they won't get picked and see who's left standing.

Paul Ryan (15/8) - Very fashionable of late, but likely a smokescreen. His budget plan can be tied to slashing of Medicare and will be a target for a huge voting bloc. But he's also a prominent member of the House of Representatives, part of the most unpopular congress ever. Out.

Rob Portman (15/8) - Puts Ohio in play for Romney - Nate Silver and 538 says it's GOP's best chance to turn a state, but very low-profile and would be unable to lift ticket in national polls. Doubtful.

Tim Pawlenty (5/2) - Has some name recognition, and a good mouthpiece. Wouldn't enthuse or alienate anybody. Possible but meh.

Marco Rubio (6/1) - I think Dems have been holding out on him, waiting to unload if he is chosen. There appears to be plenty beneath the surface in his personal history as well as his personal finances. Could be more toxic than Palin. Impossible.

Condoleeza Rice (8/1) - Very popular, huge name recognition, bridges race and gender gaps. But stances on social issues would create further rift in GOP than there already is. No way.

Bob McDonnell (9/1) - He's got perfect VP hair, but already been branded "Governor Ultrasound." Risky.

John Thune (12/1) - Very effective surrogate. The American Conservative Union gave him a rating of 100 in 2010. Hardcore Christian. There's been no real buzz about him to this point, so he can make a splash. The smart pick.

Kelly Ayotte (20/1) - Don't know anything about her. A Massachusetts/New Hampshire combo on GOP ticket? Never going to happen.

Chris Christie (22/1) - Political aspirations too high to be in a very likely losing election. Biding time for 4 years. He'll say no.

Bobby Jindal (22/1) - Will be problematic in the post-vet, after having been party to an exorcism in his past. Voodoo is fine in Louisiana, but not for the nation at large. No chance.

So I think Thune is a great play at 12/1, but if you want to look deep on the board consider these two:

Mike Huckabee (50/1) - Conservative, religious former southern Governor who would bring a level of consistency that the campaign has lacked to this point. His radio/TV gig might be a little lucrative to give up, but he probably wouldn't be out of it very long and it would only boost his national profile.

Ron Paul (66/1) - Stranger things have happened. If the "money" part of the GOP can assimilate "the base" it might be their best shot. But Paul is a maverick with steadfast convictions and it's doubtful there's a sweetheart deal he would ever accept.

Baracking Bad Part 1: What Will 51 Bring?

In a delicious, ironic twist, President Obama's 51st birthday comes one day before Breaking Bad celebrates Walter White's same birthday with an episode titled "Fifty One." It's got to be a conspiracy, right? Something to do with Area 51?

Well there doesn't seem to be much mystery or secrecy about the man on the left and how he will spend his next year. It will almost certainly be in the same Residence, with the nation watching his girls grow up.

The Real Clear Politics poll composite has Obama a slim +3.0 over Romney, with the number weighed down by the outlying conservative Rasmussen daily intake. The networks have also gone all in on the notion that the presidential race is coming down to the wire - as they are invested in the 24-hour news cycle and blowouts are bad for business. It's interesting to see two non-partisan numbers pop up in the last month: Pew Research had Obama +10 this week, and Bloomberg recently had him +13.

But more significantly, Irish oddsmaker PaddyPower.com has the sitting President at 2/5.

InTrade markets have Obama at +17.5 (in a 100-point share). That's not the be-all and end-all. On this exact date 4 years ago Obama's InTrade lead on McCain was +22.2, before an amazing but short-lived comeback by the McCain/Palin ticket who took a brief lead in the polls and the InTrade markets that were lost for good on September 18, 2008.

And mathematical election guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has Obama about to run away with it, with a 71% chance of winning. That's the same odds he forecasts for the president in Ohio, while seeing a 87% chance of winning Pennsylvania and an 88% chance of winning Michigan.

The electoral chances for Romney are described this morning by The Daily Beast's Michael Tomasky as "drawing an inside straight," and it's one where he'd likely need more than one card to fill it.

So rest easy on your birthday Mr. President. Hit 'em straight on the golf course, have your wife prepare you some sort of nutritionally sensible cake, crack open a beer and enjoy the Olympics.

Fifty One has a different meaning for me, so I'll throw on my Bernie Williams jersey and enjoy the Yankees/Ms game.

We'll take a look back at Walter White/Heisenberg's journey from 50 to 51, and try and map out the road to 52 (we know he'll get there), when Baracking Bad Part 2 continues...tomorrow.

Who Will Net LeBron?

Remember the 2007 World Series? The Red Sox were about to sweep Colorado for their 2nd title in 4 years, but as Boston was just a few outs away from a championship, it was leaked that Alex Rodriguez was opting out of his Yankee contract.

It was a power play by Super Agent Scott Boras (and some say A-Rod himself) to thrust his client's free agent status on to baseball's biggest forum and upstage it.

Now the same is true of LeBron James. Except nobody has to concoct any publicity ploys, and the season has a full month plus an amateur draft for the LeBron situation to simmer on the stove. It is one of the most fascinating offseason developments of all time, except the season is still on!

So how does one gauge the ebbs and flows of this moving target? It's simple, gamble on it. And more than that, you can buy or sell your position like a commodity as the rumor winds blow.

Just like Intrade.com, the prediction market that was thrust into the national spotlight during the 2008 presidential election season: You buy a contract or a series of contracts and each is worth $100 if it proves out but zero if it doesn't. You can buy or sell, making a profit or cutting your losses along the way.

Sites like The World Sports Exchange offer this type of action:

You can see, Cleveland is a slight favorite to retain LeBron, followed closely by Chicago and the Knicks.

We at Backtime think that his return to Cleveland is an impossibility. If he didn't win there last year or this year, he never will. Let's go make his fortune somewhere else under a greater spotlight in his quest to become the first billionaire athlete.

The real darkhorse is New Jersey, which you can buy in at 13-1, but has incredible buy-low, sell-high possibilities. I mean maybe I got sold a bag of goods by new Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov during Mike Francesa's sprawling, entertaining 50-minute interview today on WFAN/YES.

Prokhorov said the Nets (worst record in the NBA this year) would be a playoff team in one year, an NBA champion within 5 years, and with a dynasty to follow. He mentioned on many occasions during the interview "surprises" that would boost the profile and the quality of the floundering Nets franchise.

The Nets will be moving to a brand-new venue in Brooklyn within a couple of years, and there may be a change in the team's name that coincides with that.

Prokhorov is a 6-foot-7-inch, 45-year old self-made billionaire. His personal wealth is listed at 13.4 billion and Forbes ranks him as the 39th richest individual in the world. He's richer than Mark Cuban, and cooler than James Bond. LeBron may very well be listening to what this man has to say.

Not to mention, LeBron's buddy Jay-Z is still a minority owner in the franchise, and also wants a seat at the billionaires' table.

Now, who will coach the Nets is a mystery as well. But it doesn't quite capture America's imagination.