Horserace Handicappers: Double Standard Edition

We all know who Nate Silver is by now. He moved on from crunching baseball numbers, and his Five Thirty Eight site is a national phenomenon and the electoral predictor of record. Until it isn't.

His calculations are based on science and variables, weighting of national and state polls, and historical precedents. He mixes it all in some sort of witch's brew which spits out a probability. Kind of like a sportsbook or a racetrack, hence the "horserace" metaphor.

Since summer, Silver has placed the probability of Obama's reelection as high as 80%, and no lower than 60%, even when Romney overtook the President in the Real Clear Politics national poll average.

As of the time of this posting, Nate Silver has the president's chance at reelection at 78.4%. Coincidentally, European megabook PaddyPower.com has Obama as a 1/3 favorite. And InTrade.com has Obama with a 69/31 advantage.

Does this mean that Silver is touting Obama? Yes and no. If you're at the craps table and you roll a 2, 3, 4, or 12, that equates to Romney's chances. The rest of the field would be for the President. It's math.

If Obama wins, especially as closely to Silver's model in 2008, the method will be borne out. If Romney wins, Silver loses all credibility. How could he have forecasted Obama so boldly when it was clearly a toss-up election?

Meanwhile on the other side...Dick Morris is an assclown.

His post on Real Clear Politics today is titled, "Here Comes The Landslide." Morris sees the "erosion" of Obama's ground in Ohio, New Hampshire, and Iowa.

He says that in the next few days the battle will move to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. That "these new swing states look to be the battleground," with even New Jersey and Oregon coming into play. And Morris also says the GOP will see a net gain of six senate seats.

How RCP gives the same amount of space as Silver to someone so clearly in the hinterlands is a farce. The airtime he gets is less for everyone else to breathe.

His electoral map has Romney somewhere in the 350 range. According to Silver's science, the chances of that would be somewhere along the lines of rolling snake eyes four times in a row.

Now as an American, I fully support Morris's right to spew nonsense. What he lacks is both credibility and accountability. On what does he base these projections that allows him to contribute to the national discourse? And if he's wrong, will he admit he was wrong on November 7th?

There's the double standard. Nate Silver's cottage industry needs success to be credible. Dick Morris can predict anything he wants with no consequence.

And in a nutshell, there's the difference in the two bases. One side follows the facts, the other side takes it on faith.

Who be GOP VP? Process of Elimination

It's Friday August 10. It's a week that Mr. Romney has seriously slipped in the polls (Obama +9 in latest FOX News sampling), and it appears more than ever he will need a "game changing" VP pick.

Since it is illegal to make wagers on such things in the US, except for Intrade (but call them contracts), we go to Ireland where you can gamble on anything. Here is the morning line from PaddyPower.com. 

The best way to approach this list is to forensically determine why they won't get picked and see who's left standing.

Paul Ryan (15/8) - Very fashionable of late, but likely a smokescreen. His budget plan can be tied to slashing of Medicare and will be a target for a huge voting bloc. But he's also a prominent member of the House of Representatives, part of the most unpopular congress ever. Out.

Rob Portman (15/8) - Puts Ohio in play for Romney - Nate Silver and 538 says it's GOP's best chance to turn a state, but very low-profile and would be unable to lift ticket in national polls. Doubtful.

Tim Pawlenty (5/2) - Has some name recognition, and a good mouthpiece. Wouldn't enthuse or alienate anybody. Possible but meh.

Marco Rubio (6/1) - I think Dems have been holding out on him, waiting to unload if he is chosen. There appears to be plenty beneath the surface in his personal history as well as his personal finances. Could be more toxic than Palin. Impossible.

Condoleeza Rice (8/1) - Very popular, huge name recognition, bridges race and gender gaps. But stances on social issues would create further rift in GOP than there already is. No way.

Bob McDonnell (9/1) - He's got perfect VP hair, but already been branded "Governor Ultrasound." Risky.

John Thune (12/1) - Very effective surrogate. The American Conservative Union gave him a rating of 100 in 2010. Hardcore Christian. There's been no real buzz about him to this point, so he can make a splash. The smart pick.

Kelly Ayotte (20/1) - Don't know anything about her. A Massachusetts/New Hampshire combo on GOP ticket? Never going to happen.

Chris Christie (22/1) - Political aspirations too high to be in a very likely losing election. Biding time for 4 years. He'll say no.

Bobby Jindal (22/1) - Will be problematic in the post-vet, after having been party to an exorcism in his past. Voodoo is fine in Louisiana, but not for the nation at large. No chance.

So I think Thune is a great play at 12/1, but if you want to look deep on the board consider these two:

Mike Huckabee (50/1) - Conservative, religious former southern Governor who would bring a level of consistency that the campaign has lacked to this point. His radio/TV gig might be a little lucrative to give up, but he probably wouldn't be out of it very long and it would only boost his national profile.

Ron Paul (66/1) - Stranger things have happened. If the "money" part of the GOP can assimilate "the base" it might be their best shot. But Paul is a maverick with steadfast convictions and it's doubtful there's a sweetheart deal he would ever accept.

Baracking Bad Part 1: What Will 51 Bring?

In a delicious, ironic twist, President Obama's 51st birthday comes one day before Breaking Bad celebrates Walter White's same birthday with an episode titled "Fifty One." It's got to be a conspiracy, right? Something to do with Area 51?

Well there doesn't seem to be much mystery or secrecy about the man on the left and how he will spend his next year. It will almost certainly be in the same Residence, with the nation watching his girls grow up.

The Real Clear Politics poll composite has Obama a slim +3.0 over Romney, with the number weighed down by the outlying conservative Rasmussen daily intake. The networks have also gone all in on the notion that the presidential race is coming down to the wire - as they are invested in the 24-hour news cycle and blowouts are bad for business. It's interesting to see two non-partisan numbers pop up in the last month: Pew Research had Obama +10 this week, and Bloomberg recently had him +13.

But more significantly, Irish oddsmaker PaddyPower.com has the sitting President at 2/5.

InTrade markets have Obama at +17.5 (in a 100-point share). That's not the be-all and end-all. On this exact date 4 years ago Obama's InTrade lead on McCain was +22.2, before an amazing but short-lived comeback by the McCain/Palin ticket who took a brief lead in the polls and the InTrade markets that were lost for good on September 18, 2008.

And mathematical election guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has Obama about to run away with it, with a 71% chance of winning. That's the same odds he forecasts for the president in Ohio, while seeing a 87% chance of winning Pennsylvania and an 88% chance of winning Michigan.

The electoral chances for Romney are described this morning by The Daily Beast's Michael Tomasky as "drawing an inside straight," and it's one where he'd likely need more than one card to fill it.

So rest easy on your birthday Mr. President. Hit 'em straight on the golf course, have your wife prepare you some sort of nutritionally sensible cake, crack open a beer and enjoy the Olympics.

Fifty One has a different meaning for me, so I'll throw on my Bernie Williams jersey and enjoy the Yankees/Ms game.

We'll take a look back at Walter White/Heisenberg's journey from 50 to 51, and try and map out the road to 52 (we know he'll get there), when Baracking Bad Part 2 continues...tomorrow.

Adam Scott: The Open is In The Bag

For the current holder of the dubious title "Best golfer never to win a Major," the path is wide open. A four-shot lead at the final round of the British is usually far from a certainty, with stars on the leaderboard and the possibility of weather concerns. But it doesn't take a meteorologist to predict which way the wind is blowing.

The 8-time PGA Tour winner is peaking: 8th at The Masters, 15th at The U.S. Open, and 3rd in his last start at Congressional. And he's closed the deal in the past. At 24, he famously seized control, fell apart, and then gutted out the 2004 Players Championship.

The owner of $26M in career earnings and the textbook swing made a change last year -- to the most successful caddie in golf history. And while there is a lot of debate about how much Steve Williams actually helped Ray Floyd, Greg Norman and Tiger Woods win tournaments, his bosses' successes have to be seen as much more than coincidence.

Williams is like a politician's "Body Man," making sure every minute detail is taken care of, and the golfer has no distractions or worries. And watching Scott's body language for 3 days, his game seems completely unencumbered.

There is one problem in the leader's rearview, and it's not Tiger.

More like the sideview, since Graeme McDowell (#12 in world) is in the final pairing with Scott. McDowell has proven over the last 3 years that he can stand the heat with a 1st and 2nd at the U.S. Open and was the anchor of Europe's 2010 Ryder Cup win.

The home oddsmakers see it that way too. PaddyPower.com has Scott as the better than odds-on 1-2 favorite going into Sunday with McDowell at 4-1 and Woods at 5-1.

It's Scott's date with destiny right now. And at just 32 years young, it should be the first of many.