See Ya, Dick

Well when you're wrong, you're wrong. And not only was Dick Morris (way) wrong about the 2012 Presidential election, I was wrong about how he had nothing to lose by being a pandering assclown.

My blogpost on October 31, 2012, titled Horserace Handicappers: Double Standard Edition misread the election prediction business. Not completely, I was right that Nate Silver's reputation was on the line and that his models were based on science and almost certainly correct. But I also said that Dick Morris had nothing to lose by forecasting a Romney landslide, that he'd be back at the same racket.

Lo and behold there were consequences, Dick Morris was exiled from Fox News shortly after the election. Even the author of Here Come The Black Helicopters was too outlandish for the demographic.

Last night's video montage of Morris's greatest hits on The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell diminishes the significance of the move by FNC. With the ousting of Morris and Sarah Palin, Fox will be looking (theoretically) for a more moderate approach.

Lets look who's out there:

Even though Scott Brown is kind of a dolt, he has some appeal and isn't off the rails. His popularity is reasonably high, especially higher than if he were to lose a special election this spring.

I think the cable news outlets should be in a bidding war for Gary Johnson, the 2012 Libertarian candidate for President. His views are conservative and small-government enough to reflect the will of the audience, or to offer contrast. Yet, he still will go off the party line on a number of issues. He's got a mind of his own, which makes for good TV.

Then there's Chris Christie. Maybe his ambition hasn't allowed him to step aside to be a 7-figure talking head, but it's clear he can opine in any forum. It would be easy for him to step aside as Governor of NJ (think something innocuous like "health reasons"). He is capable of throwing bombs at either party if that's what Fox is now going for.

But let's not forget that Morris's second career begins this evening on Piers Morgan Tonight, when the Columbia grad and former Clinton advisor becomes the most refined guest on that show since every gun nut came out of the woodwork after Newtown.

Let's see if Morris tries a new approach, or continues to spout senselessness. I'm sure there's a contract waiting for him somewhere.

Debated To Death

There are times when the the 24-hour news cycle is gripping, and there are times we all want to throw in the towel. How many times can we handle the pre-debate analysis? Well here's one more, except this one doesn't pull punches.

It's as if all the cliches are on a loop: "Do no harm," "Frame the argument," "Have a zinger ready." But here's the problem for Mr. Romney - you can't be over-prepared. Then you seem too rehearsed, inauthentic and stiff. Not that Romney's had any problem connecting with people (Backtime's Editorial Department just unloaded an incredulous Al Gore sigh).

Romney's best moments from the GOP debates were actually off the cuff. He dismissed a floundering Rick Perry with more than one "Nice try" and he told Newt Gingrich if he was on his staff and proposed some moon colony he'd be "fired."

Romney has had plenty of time to memorize his talking points, layered arguments, and even a canned zinger or two, but he would have to have a spontaneous moment to do anything impactful. So the bar's been set pretty low.

That seems to be the prevailing view but Romney surrogate Chris Christie, the Governor of my home state, didn't seem to get the memo. Christie was on all three network Sunday morning shows (were they offering free danish?) talking about how the race would be turned "upside down come Thursday morning." Was that a prediction or a pep talk?

The President, on the other hand, has been playing a much more conservative (small "c") game the last few weeks, looking to sit on his lead. Which means now is the time to unload. It will be the first time America sees Mr. Obama with his opponent on the same stage, and should waste no time discrediting him.

Obama has 90 minutes to hit Romney over and over on something that Romney can't possibly defend, his flexibility on nearly every issue. I wouldn't be surprised if the President drops "Etch-A-Sketch" as the soundbite moment that every media outlet runs with.

A few weeks back at the DNC everyone was raving about The First Lady's high-energy speech and President Clinton's fun, educational address. But the most effective speaker was Senator John Kerry, who laid the groundwork for the pummeling that's about to take place:

"Mr. Romney...you'd better finish the debate with yourself."

The issues are crucial and the important men will be at their lofty podiums, and Jim Lehrer will be there to be a PBS above-it-all bastion of journalistic integrity, but don't be fooled. This is all PR. And only one of the two candidates can relate to the public.

Who be GOP VP? Process of Elimination

It's Friday August 10. It's a week that Mr. Romney has seriously slipped in the polls (Obama +9 in latest FOX News sampling), and it appears more than ever he will need a "game changing" VP pick.

Since it is illegal to make wagers on such things in the US, except for Intrade (but call them contracts), we go to Ireland where you can gamble on anything. Here is the morning line from PaddyPower.com. 

The best way to approach this list is to forensically determine why they won't get picked and see who's left standing.

Paul Ryan (15/8) - Very fashionable of late, but likely a smokescreen. His budget plan can be tied to slashing of Medicare and will be a target for a huge voting bloc. But he's also a prominent member of the House of Representatives, part of the most unpopular congress ever. Out.

Rob Portman (15/8) - Puts Ohio in play for Romney - Nate Silver and 538 says it's GOP's best chance to turn a state, but very low-profile and would be unable to lift ticket in national polls. Doubtful.

Tim Pawlenty (5/2) - Has some name recognition, and a good mouthpiece. Wouldn't enthuse or alienate anybody. Possible but meh.

Marco Rubio (6/1) - I think Dems have been holding out on him, waiting to unload if he is chosen. There appears to be plenty beneath the surface in his personal history as well as his personal finances. Could be more toxic than Palin. Impossible.

Condoleeza Rice (8/1) - Very popular, huge name recognition, bridges race and gender gaps. But stances on social issues would create further rift in GOP than there already is. No way.

Bob McDonnell (9/1) - He's got perfect VP hair, but already been branded "Governor Ultrasound." Risky.

John Thune (12/1) - Very effective surrogate. The American Conservative Union gave him a rating of 100 in 2010. Hardcore Christian. There's been no real buzz about him to this point, so he can make a splash. The smart pick.

Kelly Ayotte (20/1) - Don't know anything about her. A Massachusetts/New Hampshire combo on GOP ticket? Never going to happen.

Chris Christie (22/1) - Political aspirations too high to be in a very likely losing election. Biding time for 4 years. He'll say no.

Bobby Jindal (22/1) - Will be problematic in the post-vet, after having been party to an exorcism in his past. Voodoo is fine in Louisiana, but not for the nation at large. No chance.

So I think Thune is a great play at 12/1, but if you want to look deep on the board consider these two:

Mike Huckabee (50/1) - Conservative, religious former southern Governor who would bring a level of consistency that the campaign has lacked to this point. His radio/TV gig might be a little lucrative to give up, but he probably wouldn't be out of it very long and it would only boost his national profile.

Ron Paul (66/1) - Stranger things have happened. If the "money" part of the GOP can assimilate "the base" it might be their best shot. But Paul is a maverick with steadfast convictions and it's doubtful there's a sweetheart deal he would ever accept.