See Ya, Dick

Well when you're wrong, you're wrong. And not only was Dick Morris (way) wrong about the 2012 Presidential election, I was wrong about how he had nothing to lose by being a pandering assclown.

My blogpost on October 31, 2012, titled Horserace Handicappers: Double Standard Edition misread the election prediction business. Not completely, I was right that Nate Silver's reputation was on the line and that his models were based on science and almost certainly correct. But I also said that Dick Morris had nothing to lose by forecasting a Romney landslide, that he'd be back at the same racket.

Lo and behold there were consequences, Dick Morris was exiled from Fox News shortly after the election. Even the author of Here Come The Black Helicopters was too outlandish for the demographic.

Last night's video montage of Morris's greatest hits on The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell diminishes the significance of the move by FNC. With the ousting of Morris and Sarah Palin, Fox will be looking (theoretically) for a more moderate approach.

Lets look who's out there:

Even though Scott Brown is kind of a dolt, he has some appeal and isn't off the rails. His popularity is reasonably high, especially higher than if he were to lose a special election this spring.

I think the cable news outlets should be in a bidding war for Gary Johnson, the 2012 Libertarian candidate for President. His views are conservative and small-government enough to reflect the will of the audience, or to offer contrast. Yet, he still will go off the party line on a number of issues. He's got a mind of his own, which makes for good TV.

Then there's Chris Christie. Maybe his ambition hasn't allowed him to step aside to be a 7-figure talking head, but it's clear he can opine in any forum. It would be easy for him to step aside as Governor of NJ (think something innocuous like "health reasons"). He is capable of throwing bombs at either party if that's what Fox is now going for.

But let's not forget that Morris's second career begins this evening on Piers Morgan Tonight, when the Columbia grad and former Clinton advisor becomes the most refined guest on that show since every gun nut came out of the woodwork after Newtown.

Let's see if Morris tries a new approach, or continues to spout senselessness. I'm sure there's a contract waiting for him somewhere.

Flash Backtime: Politics And Football Metaphors

Every four years we get to this point. Football is our #1 sport nationally, full of strategy and angles, and a clock that will eventually run out. So naturally we all equate the final drive of this election season to the closing of a football game.

And the blog I filed for SavannahNow.com four years ago still holds true today, taking the football analogies right in the huddle with the signal callers.

October 16, 2008

I wasn't going to watch last night's debate because I had already voted, but the dynamics of the process are far too fascinating to turn away from. I especially like how football is so ingrained in the analysis of the TV commentators.

How often did you hear that McCain needed a "Hail Mary" or that Obama merely had to "sit on his lead" or "run out the clock." There are plenty of boxing analogies too, but they aren't as fun. So I decided to take it a step further and compare the two candidates to former NFL Quaterbacks.

Barack Obama is Troy Aikman. Each came from limited means and had to overcome early career adversity. Obama lost his first bid for the U.S. Congress. Aikman had to transfer to UCLA after losing his starting gig at Oklahoma. But after some seasoning, and surrounding themselves with talented and well-versed ensembles, they exude cool, charisma, and confidence. And then they became champions.

John McCain is Archie Manning. The un-polished, over-emotive, scrappy risk-taker who gave his all. But because of a motley crew of flunkies at his side, and some terrible decisions of his own, not even his great determination could lead him to the top. His spirit will win legions of fans, but he will inevitably lose the big showdown.

Obama "took a knee" last night when the Governor Palin question came up. He could have unloaded on her the way she has on him. Lord knows, there's plenty of material. He could have expanded his lead and "run up the score" but he took the high road to win with class.

Maybe you favor the loveable loser over the collected champion. That is your right. But don't expect a monumental comeback on November 4, because your heart will be broken again.

November 3, 2012

So who is Mitt Romney in this cosmic political gridiron tapestry?

I'm going with Chris Simms. Romney, like the younger Simms, was born into royalty in his field. He had all the tutelage, grooming, and good hair one could possibly need to take the world by the balls.

Simms set records at Texas and Romney tore up the private sector, but when it was time to go pro the results were tepid at best. Simms's career NFL record of 7-9 is akin to Romney's record as as Massachusetts governor, where Romney claims to have coexisted in a bipartisan fashion with the state's legislature but had over 800 vetoes over-ridden.

Ultimately both lacked the toughness necessary to succeed at the highest level, and are resigned to live out the remainder of their careers inconsequently and on name recognition alone.

Book vs Movie: Game Change

This post was inspired by Julianne Moore's well-deserved Emmy (and bright yellow thing) Sunday night. I thought she was phenomenal in late-90's classics Boogie Nights and The Big Lebowski, though she seemed to disappear after taking a run at FBI Special Agent Clarice Starling in Hannibal.

But she came back in a big way in the 2012 HBO Original Film Game Change. Her portrayal of a certain Alaskan half-term governor took us inside the meteoric rise to national cult figure, the hubris that came with it, all wrapped in the mind of crazy.

But now more to the point of this post, the book Game Change wasn't really about Palin. The actual title of John Heilemann and Mark Halperin's work is Game Change: Obama and the Clintons, McCain and Palin, and the Race of a Lifetime.

There are 23 chapters in the book, and Sarah Palin is only the subject of two of them. That's only one more than devoted to John Edwards, who was a factor in the Dem race early on. In fact Palin doesn't even enter the story in person (and only mentioned a couple of times before that) until page 359.

So why did HBO decide to make a film using just a small subsection of the book by the same name?Well, as the long title of the book hints, the story would be way too broad. So why the McCain/Palin angle? The Obama-Hillary heavyweight fight was just as compelling. And the book's ultimate hero is obvious.

In the afterword, the writers state, "And then there is 44. More than any other character, it was Obama who was at the heart of Game Change."

It's probably because Obama's American success story is boring in comparison. Palin went from unkown to unavoidable literally overnight. The American reality mentality now is that anyone can be a star, and when they get there we love to see them torn down, built back up, and torn down again. It's the perpetual story arc.

In fact America has become so attached to the Palin brand, the supply and demand is there for the whole clan to continue to do reality TV for the foreseeable future. The Palins and the American viewers are co-dependants. Thus the telegenics of a TV movie.

The movie seems to check out. The McCain campaign needed a running mate with sizzle to match the heat of Obama, and didn't do their homework on Palin. McCain brain-trusters Steve Schmidt and Nicolle Wallace have backed the story up. Palin's legions feel that she's been scapegoated for the lost 2008 election.

Conventional wisdom is that Palin, though an extremely flawed VP candidate, did not lose the election. Chapter 21 of the book is called "September Surprise" in which McCain totally mishandles the financial crisis of 2008. This is glossed over in the movie.

The focus is on how ill-prepared Palin was for the position she was running for, and ultimately how she changed politics forever. Politicians have always stretched the truth, but the absolute denial of facts plays the country for fools, and the 2012 GOP candidates' seismic-shifting, facts-be-damned narrative wouldn't have been possible without her precedent setting the table. This exchange between Schmidt and Palin sums it up:

Schmidt: [regarding "Troopergate" charges] You can't say you were cleared of all wrongdoing. 

Palin: Why not?
 
Schmidt: Because you weren't. The reports stated that you abused your power; that is the OPPOSITE of being cleared of all wrongdoing. 

Palin: Then why was I told otherwise? 

Schmidt: You weren't told otherwise! 

Palin: And why haven't you released a statement saying that Todd was never a member of the Alaskan Independence Party? 

Schmidt: Because that would be untrue! He WAS a member. 

Palin: He checked the WRONG BOX! He registered BY ACCIDENT and rectified the error immediately! 

Schmidt: He was a member for SEVEN YEARS! I'm sorry, Governor, but there is only a few weeks left in this campaign and you have got to stop saying things to the press that are blatantly untrue; that is NOT the kind of campaign that we are running here! 

Schmidt's role in the movie is definitely outsize in the movie compared to the book, but Woody Harrelson's performance is excellent. He goes from nurturing to placating to puppeteering to excoriating the VP candidate.

The movie, as many movies will do to smooth out a story, takes what were likely a dozen meetings among the McCain campaign staff and condensed them into one. That was before Palin's arrival in the movie, and the story seemed incongruous.

I'm pretty sure John McCain never said, "Then find me a woman." And I'm sure Rick Davis (Peter MacNicol) never checked a shopping list of every woman in GOP politics against Google articles and You Tube videos.

McCain (Ed Harris) is the one who is short-sold in the movie. He's actually the most dynamic character in the book. His legendary temper doesn't come out, and his profanities are kept in check.

In the book he's quoted dropping 11 straight F-bombs on poor Cindy after she interrupted him. And his sly humor is invisible as well, "I'm the only one I know who would go to Iraq to get away from it all." In the movie version, McCain comes across less of a maverick and more of a deferential uncle.

Also Todd Palin seems too benign in the film. It is well-documented that he was a man behind the curtain in Alaska, manipulating and peddling influence, not a nerdy dad with puppy dog eyes.

But Julianne Moore steals the show. She doesn't look like Palin as much as Tina Fey or Gina Gershon, but the nuance is uncanny. The speeches, body language, accent, smile are all spot on. After a little while you forget it's a portrayal. The makeup room meltdown before the Katie Couric interview was chilling. Wallace later said it made her "squirm."

I think that people who love the movie and love to hate Palin, might pick up the book and find it's not what they expect. It weaves the tapestry of a 2-year campaign on both sides. The title Game Change actually fits the movie better than the book, even if the movie doesn't have the same mission as the story that spun it.

Who be GOP VP? Process of Elimination

It's Friday August 10. It's a week that Mr. Romney has seriously slipped in the polls (Obama +9 in latest FOX News sampling), and it appears more than ever he will need a "game changing" VP pick.

Since it is illegal to make wagers on such things in the US, except for Intrade (but call them contracts), we go to Ireland where you can gamble on anything. Here is the morning line from PaddyPower.com. 

The best way to approach this list is to forensically determine why they won't get picked and see who's left standing.

Paul Ryan (15/8) - Very fashionable of late, but likely a smokescreen. His budget plan can be tied to slashing of Medicare and will be a target for a huge voting bloc. But he's also a prominent member of the House of Representatives, part of the most unpopular congress ever. Out.

Rob Portman (15/8) - Puts Ohio in play for Romney - Nate Silver and 538 says it's GOP's best chance to turn a state, but very low-profile and would be unable to lift ticket in national polls. Doubtful.

Tim Pawlenty (5/2) - Has some name recognition, and a good mouthpiece. Wouldn't enthuse or alienate anybody. Possible but meh.

Marco Rubio (6/1) - I think Dems have been holding out on him, waiting to unload if he is chosen. There appears to be plenty beneath the surface in his personal history as well as his personal finances. Could be more toxic than Palin. Impossible.

Condoleeza Rice (8/1) - Very popular, huge name recognition, bridges race and gender gaps. But stances on social issues would create further rift in GOP than there already is. No way.

Bob McDonnell (9/1) - He's got perfect VP hair, but already been branded "Governor Ultrasound." Risky.

John Thune (12/1) - Very effective surrogate. The American Conservative Union gave him a rating of 100 in 2010. Hardcore Christian. There's been no real buzz about him to this point, so he can make a splash. The smart pick.

Kelly Ayotte (20/1) - Don't know anything about her. A Massachusetts/New Hampshire combo on GOP ticket? Never going to happen.

Chris Christie (22/1) - Political aspirations too high to be in a very likely losing election. Biding time for 4 years. He'll say no.

Bobby Jindal (22/1) - Will be problematic in the post-vet, after having been party to an exorcism in his past. Voodoo is fine in Louisiana, but not for the nation at large. No chance.

So I think Thune is a great play at 12/1, but if you want to look deep on the board consider these two:

Mike Huckabee (50/1) - Conservative, religious former southern Governor who would bring a level of consistency that the campaign has lacked to this point. His radio/TV gig might be a little lucrative to give up, but he probably wouldn't be out of it very long and it would only boost his national profile.

Ron Paul (66/1) - Stranger things have happened. If the "money" part of the GOP can assimilate "the base" it might be their best shot. But Paul is a maverick with steadfast convictions and it's doubtful there's a sweetheart deal he would ever accept.

Paper Backtime: American Freak Show

The 24-hour news cycle. America's tabloid obsession. Reality show mayhem. It's all put on a pedestal, fashioned hilariously by Willie Geist in 2010.

As the backbone and bullshit police of Morning Joe, Geist is able to handle the hard news and hold his own one-liners with the regular roundtable of pundits that yap for a living.

The book, American Freak Show: The Completely Fabricated Stories of our New National Treasures, takes the news part out of the equation.

And Geist isn't what you'd expect. You might think high-brow, northeast/Vandy elitist humor. But it's really a lot more crude, descending on slapstick. There are a few eyerolls, but plenty that is laugh-out-loud while idling in the school pickup lane.

The first chapter envisions Sarah Palin's presidential inauguration at a WWE event in Tampa with the reception at Dave & Busters.

And some of the other chapter titles speak for themselves.

4. Lindsay Lohan: Twitter from a Santa Monica Jail

5. Obama vs Cheney: Late Night in the White House Kitchen

9. The Longest Yard: Guantanamo Bay

12. Go-karts and Waterslides: The George W. Bush Presidential Library

14. The Jim-Jong Il Celebrity Golf Tournament

15. The Neverland Ranch Yard Sale

17. Levi Johnston: The College Essay

18. The People of Heaven v. John Edwards

Of all the people lampooned in the book, nobody is as sympathetic and heart-warming as Rod Blagojevich, who had put Obama's senate seat on Craiglist. Yes Blago is on an FBI tape, offering a Little Caesers employee a high-ranking job in the Department of Sanitation in exchange for free crazy bread. All while using f**k in every fourth word.

My favorite "skit" was The Bachelorette: A Vote For Love. It's 25 politicians vying for the love of Heather, and it coming down to Mark Sanford and Eliot Spitzer.

Sanford of course goes with the "soulmate" angle, offering his devotion and quoting Grey's Anatomy. But she ultimately chooses Spitzer because he tried to pay her the first time, they did it once in a hot-air balloon, and they share the same safe word "Beowulf!" Of course Spitzer dumps her right after she chooses him.

Then my favorite line teases the next season on The Bachelor, "when we finally cut the pretense and round up a bunch of strippers, put them in bikinis, pump them full of pills and vodka, and let them wrestle in tapioca pudding for the heart of a single dad." That's when I knew we were on the same wavelength.

Unfortunately, Geist's 2011 follow-up, Loaded! Become A Millionaire Overnight and Lose 20 Pounds in 2 Weeks or Your Money Back, is just foolish. It tries to do the same thing with financial advice as Freak Show does with pop culture, but they (co-written with Boyd McDonnell) are out of good material after about 15 pages. Blago would've hung up on them.  

Paper Backtime: What Are You Reading? It's Classified

When a content junkie takes a 601-day break from blogging, one goes about the hunting and killing of dozens of books. Actual ones with covers, meant for reading when you're sitting in the carpool lane at school or when you're in the upright and locked position awaiting takeoff.

You hope for something memorable and meaningful, but mostly you just hope for a good diversion to turn pages and see what happens next. Nicolle Wallace delivers on the latter.

Wallace was the White House Communications Director under George Bush #43, and her experiences on the grounds ("the acres") shape the world the she's created.

In the first book Eighteen Acres, it's a world with women as President, Chief of Staff, and Secretary of State - in a Republican Administration no less. So while that premise seems unbelievable enough, the Washington environment they live in is very much on the mark.

The political atmosphere is full of power brokers and spin, and the media is just as relentless as the DC heat in an oppressive summer with the faulty White House AC. You can follow the action from the Oval Office to the West Wing to the East Wing to the Situation Room, to the OEOB (Old Executive Office Building), to The Residence...all while running into anxious worker bees and stale M&Ms.

Each story focuses on 3 women, and the administration of President Charlotte Kramer. In my mind's eye, I see Captain Kathryn Janeway from Star Trek Voyager. Anyway, she's all business which eventually leads to The First Husband's affair with TV Reporter Dale Smith. He's able to keep it quiet and since it's not a breach of security, the Secret Service doesn't get in his way.

But when Smith's helicopter is shot down covering a presidential visit in Afghanistan, everything comes to the surface and dissolves the President's marriage. The military fiasco eventually leads to the Secretary of Defense's suicide.

With hope all but lost for re-election, Kramer reaches across the aisle for Democrat running-mate Tara Myers, the popular Attorney General from New York. What Myers lacks in social graces, she makes up in her connection with the electorate. The hotshot VP saves the election, but she is woefully ill-prepared for the position she's ascended too.

That's where It's Classified begins and Wallace really gets some momentum going. And that's where the buzz for this book comes from.

Wallace's experiences with a combustible VP candidate from the McCain-Palin campaign were one of the biggest plot points in the HBO film Game Change, which is sure to be hoarding Emmy awards. In the aftermath of the film, campaign strategist Steve Schmidt and Wallace (now both contributors for MSNBC) topped the enemies' list of the die-hard "Palinistas." There's also reason to believe that the Amazon.com review ratings on the book tanked when Palin's flying monkey army got involved.

That said, It's Classified isn't that great anyway. When VP Myers secretly battles undiagnosed and untreated depression and OCD throughout the book, she gains noticeable weight, and calls in sick constantly. Her uneven behavior is not lost on the national media. When the staff tries to rehabilitate her image with a series of network morning show interviews, she screws it up and the plan implodes.

A few days later when the White House elevates the terror threat level, it is ripped apart as a political stunt to divert from the negative press the VP has caused. Independent Counsel is brought in to investigate. The VP resigns and the President is impeached. But the President and her husband get back together and everyone lives happily ever after, of course.

The Myers character only channels Palin in her craziness. While the author paints her as transcendentally popular, that never really comes across. She also has some level of expertise on legal issues, and generally is a sympathetic figure.

On the whole, the storylines of the two books are pretty good. You get a very plausible inside look of how the sausage is made in the executive branch and how the pressure gets all cooked up in a crisis. And you really feel what the endless days are like for the President and The Senior Staff.

The characters are average. Nobody jumps off the page. Too much time is spent with players inquiring about interpersonal relationships in their circle like The Newsroom or House M.D., only with worse dialogue - if that's even possible.

I'll chalk up the forced humanity to Wallace's own tenure in the White House, where I'm sure real emotional connections were scarce.

Juneau What I Think

The hardscrabble icecap politics of The Last Frontier must have been too much for this shooting star. Conservatively speaking, of course.

Sarah Palin stirred up the GOP base with her smile, winks, values talk, and her ability to relate to "regular folks" (read: white people).

She was without a doubt an American success story. Mother of five (or is it four or six - I can't keep count) becomes mayor and then governor in her home state. It was quirky and cool until the big fish left the small pond.

Yes Governor, you could see Russia from your home base. You just couldn't see the lower 48.

You could throw your weight around, usurp the legislature, create your own ethical roadmap, and make back-room deals all the way from Wasilla to Ketchikan - until America heard of you.

The national spotlight and Katie Couric's softball questions gave the Alaskan hockey mom a lot of Northern Exposure. She became a target for comedians, commentators, and even some conservatives as she continually put her foot in her mouth, and left a financial twister in her wake.

Palin burst on the scene on August 29, 2008 when Senator John McCain tabbed her as the wild card VP candidate the morning after Senator Barack Obama stirred up 70,000+ at Invesco Field in Denver and hundreds of millions worldwide.

Just over 10 months later, Palin resigned her post as the executive officer of the nation's least-populated state with a ton more name recognition and a lot more baggage.

Cash in those speaking engagements while you can. Your name was in the news cycle longer than Elian Gonzalez, but shorter than OJ Simpson. Your run for the White House was historic, but your footnote in history will be merely historical.