Lamenting The End Of A Season

There is always great trepidation when a routine is interrupted.

At the end of the baseball season, you wake up and think, "Who's pitching today?" The answer is nobody. The season's over. Watch college basketball.

When I was a kid I hated when summer was over because school was on the horizon. Now as a parent it's much the opposite, you dread the end of the school year as you embark on an unstructured, exhausting and HOT Savannah summer.

When a good book ends, you reach to turn to the next page and there isn't one, except for maybe some boring acknowledgments.

Now I don't want the Cold War to end. Maybe it hasn't - Mitt Romney called Russia our "Number one geopolitical foe" just last year. And maybe there are sleeper Directorate S KGB agents still spying on us now while continuing to masquerade as average Americans.

Regardless, the inside world of Cold War espionage portrayed in The Americans is provocative, delicious, and addicting, and it's hard to believe that season one ends tonight. And expect there to be cliffhanger drama that will keep us salivating for next season.

There are the constant cat-and-mouse KGB/FBI games, and the rising tension/awareness in Phillip and Elizabeth's marriage. The penultimate episode "The Oath" took on both storyline runners brilliantly.

Just when the FBI had been alerted to the bug in Caspar Weinberger's study, Phillip was able to pull off a new bug in the FBI counterintelligence office. How? By marrying the director's secretary as his alter-ego Clark Westerfeld.

Elizabeth was dubious about that possibility, "No knock on your charms there Romeo, there's no way she'll go for that." But Phillip was right, he pulled off a secretive wedding with his fellow agents and masters of disguise appearing as his family. The parents of the bride even commented on the "family resemblance."

The wedding scene was especially poignant since Phillip and Elizabeth are having their own marital impasse, even though they were never actually married in the first place.

Meanwhile the FBI's main mole, the brilliant and sexy Nina, has found herself moving up the food chain at the KGB to the point of taking an oath of her own.

She confesses her sins and throws herself at the mercy of the Rezident, claiming she wants to redeem herself in the eyes of Mother Russia. So now we have a real double agent and she will be handling Agent Beeman rather than the other way around.

The storylines are brilliant, emotional, and building. But that will all come to a halt as the season regrettably concludes this evening.

He Wouldn't Do This To Us, Would He?

Woody Johnson took over ownership of the Jets in 2000. Since that time, on paper, the Jets haven't been too bad with 6 playoff appearances in 13 seasons.

But it's the way that he's done business that has perplexed and disenfranchised the most loyal and hard-suffering fan base. Now there's talk floating about a possible trade of Darrelle Revis, perhaps the best player ever to put on a Jets uniform.

You know Robert "Woody" Johnson IV, a real American success story. He is of course an heir to the Johnson & Johnson fortune, and has been a major bundler for Mitt Romney and the GOP.

As CEO of a private investment firm, he like Romney hovered above the clouds in the business world, unable to relate to the human element of either those whom he employs or those who have been consuming the product he now owns. He is a multi-billionaire who sees only a bottom line: how to maximize value while slashing costs.

If that means bringing in a relatively inexpensive player like Tim Tebow for a temporary spike in merchandising, bring it on. Nothing against Tebow - I don't love him or hate him. But it didn't matter that the coach didn't want him or his presence wrecked team chemistry.

Then Johnson blamed the Tebow acquisition on recently-fired GM Mike Tannenbaum, who said that Tannenbaum "forced" Tebow on him.

Now Johnson has "no comment" on the Revis trade rumors. The plans to jettison the team's best player (ever) have almost everything to do with his pricetag, and maybe just a little bit to do with his 2010 contract holdout.

The new GM, John Idzik, just came on board so what is he supposed to say? Rex Ryan could stand up for Revis, but he's living on borrowed time with one year to save his job. Rex seems like a principled guy who would go down with the ship, so how could he leave Revis twisting in the wind?

My theory is that it's not just Ryan's job that's on the line here. Woody Johnson has the means and the political playbook to ruin Rex Ryan if he doesn't play ball. What if the info unearthed on Rex and his wife a couple of years back was just a sample? Do you still think Rex would go down with the ship at the cost of his family?

Woody Johnson is going to get his way, and nobody is going to get in the way. Certainly not Revis, Ryan, or those pesky unimportant Jet fans. Bill Parcells read the writing on the wall once Leon Hess put the Jets up for sale in 1999. He resigned. The heir apparent, Bill Belichick, also resigned. He found an owner that was on the same page, and the rest is history.

We see how successful a football team can be when everyone's on the same page. The Jets are all over the map. And it all starts at the top.

A Capitol Idea

I'm not exactly sure what the powers that be were looking to get out of the Benghazi hearings yesterday, but it didn't seem like there were any dots to connect. If anything, this was master political positioning from the Clinton camp.

I'm not saying Hillary Clinton's illness was faked by any stretch, but it was certainly fortuitous timing as it relates to this matter. She had extra time to prepare for every angle, and most importantly it was her last appearance as Secretary of State. So it wasn't just a congressional hearing, it was a going-away party.

As everyone thanked her for her tenure with the State Department, it became a love-fest. If anyone expected her to fall on her sword in a moment of great panic or bewilderment, that was a Hail Mary.

If anything it hurt the GOP in the future as Clinton came across as forceful and unflappable, and thus an imposing figure should she become the Dem nominee in 2016. The substance of what she was saying was secondary as we've learned in today's politics.

Mitt Romney won a presidential debate by incessantly lying and changing his story. Joe Biden won a vice-presidential debate by incessantly interrupting and talking down to Paul Ryan. It's not what these people say as much as the presence they bring to a confrontation, at least in the eyes of the average American.

Now who's got more headwinds going into 2016, Clinton or Biden? The left probably likes either option, there's "an heir and a spare."

It's hard to see Biden not getting the nod if he wants it. He's been President Obama's hammer in dealing with Congress and spreading the message, which trumps Hillary jet-setting all over the world as a liaison. Obama would be compelled to endorse Biden, though Ms. Clinton at her current standing (which is unlikely to change in the coming months or years) may not even need his endorsement.

Through: Mike Tannenbaum

I liked Tannenbaum. But his position as Jets GM was a stretch. He came aboard in 1997 as a critical attache to the impressive but brief Bill Parcells era.

In a changing world order in the NFL in the 90s, Tannenbaum was the preeminent "capologist." He slotted contracts into a jigsaw puzzle, knowing how to frontload, backload, and find loopholes to maximize value on an NFL roster. Basically, this is the guy Mitt Romney wants doing his taxes.

His first role with the Jets was Director of Player Contract Negotiations. Which was on display big-time in 2010 when we saw a real life take-it or leave-it offer to former starting QB Kellen Clemens on Hard Knocks.

Every team needs a financial guy and hatchet man like Mike T, but to make him your #1 football exec? He was as out of place as a football personnel man as he was trying to field punts on TV.

Basically Tannenbaum's regime as Woody Johnson's GM was marked by some success, but mostly he was a stooge for ownership making one hollow PR splash after another. On-field, actual football came second. You could almost set his tenure to music.

It's really more of a parody. Thinking more of a Seinfeld/Naked Gun musical montage set to Kenny Rogers.

"Through the years, when everything went wrong. Together we were strong. I know that I belong right here with you...Through the years, I never had a doubt, we'd always work things out..."

The Tebow thing was really the last straw. For there to be all the hullabaloo for a guy who didn't contribute at all, when the resources and attention could have been paid on someone who could actually help the football team, that is unacceptable. And the owner can't fire himself.

I don't know who should replace him. I don't know if Rex Ryan should be back, though the defense played with a lot of heart. I can't imagine Sanchez or Tebow back. But here is the one thing and Backtime tweeted as much on Black Monday:

Dear NY Jets: If you hire Norv Turner I will have to drive to New Jersey and talk to somebody.

I of course mean as offensive coordinator. I would argue that is the single most important move this offseason. Hopefully a real football man will make it.

Better Late Than Never: David Axelrod Does Real Time

Bill Maher's second post-election show, the "season finale" before going on a two month hiatus, was loaded with big-time guests. He had Michael Moore and David Frum on the panel, and a late visit from Eric Idle. But the feather in the cap for Maher was Obama's Senior Strategist David Axelrod.

This was significant since Axelrod had been booked to do the show back in March but canceled. The no-show wasn't because of Maher, but rather because of Rush Limbaugh. Follow this logic:

In early March, Rush Limbaugh made the infamous nasty and vicious remarks about Georgetown law student Sandra Fluke. It became a big media blow-up, which ultimately became political. Conservatives didn't defend Limbaugh's comments, though many (like Mitt Romney) wouldn't denounce them.

And then, since the pendulum had to swing back, the Conservative Entertainment Complex found a false equivalent in Bill Maher. Fox News and others began pulling the most incendiary and offensive clips throughout the history of Maher's program. But here are the main differences between the two:

1) Bill Maher's audience knows he's joking. While many who agree with his politics are offended by his "potty mouth" and vile innuendo, nobody takes his laugh lines too seriously.

But Limbaugh's audience thinks he is the gospel. If he uses off-color characterizations, the ditto-heads are all-in, whether Limbaugh is serious or not. And I tend to think he's not serious.

In fact, I believe that Rush Limbaugh voted for Obama (twice). There's no money in playing the opposition if your audience is the party in power.

2) Bill Maher offers different points of view. While Real Time with Bill Maher is certainly liberally biased, he welcomes opposing views onto the show, and gives them some room.

In 2012, a presidential election year, Maher has a vast array of prominent conservative voices on his panel:

Grover Norquist
Darrell Issa
Ann Coulter
Jack Kingston
Reihan Salam
S.E. Cupp
David Frum

Can you imagine Rush Limbaugh hosting Bernie Sanders, Rachel Maddow, or Paul Krugman?

3) In Bill Maher's own words, "At least I know I'm an asshole." And that is the Mason-Dixon line.

Axelrod, being the strategist that he is, decided that being a lightning rod for the right wing would not be the prudent course in the heat of a reelection campaign. So after the election was over and the goal had been attained, Axelrod and his mustache showed up on location in Hollywood.

You rarely see him as anything other than a talking head, so I was thrown off at how tall and gangly he was. But as always he was professorial, and measured. For the first time, I recognized he was a separated-at-birth twin.

Axelrod's long-awaited appearance on Real Time wasn't particularly psychological. He was polite when Maher tried to corner him on Obama's loath for both Romney and McCain. And when Maher brought up his connection to the campaigns he won for black candidates, calling him "the Robert DeNiro of politics," Axelrod laughed it off saying he just had "good taste" and that Obama is a "great guy." Strategist, indeed.

Pull Up A Chair: Maddow On Colbert

There is no table I would've rather sat at in my life than this one. And maybe from our chance meeting we could start a friendship. Stephen and I could go to ballgames, play word association, and maybe train together in the sport of kings. And perhaps Rachel would accept my hand in marriage, and we could have long walks and talk politics, while she expertly mixed my favorite drink.

But sadly I'm probably not their types. While my life does intersect with some iconic people, I'll just have to accept that these two are beyond my grasp as I am relegated to a life of amateur hero worship.

They are two great examples of American television genius, thorough deconstructors of the events of the day, and whistleblowers of hypocrisy. They separate the signal from the noise. Each obviously does their work in very different ways, but have created two mainstays in nightly TV fare.

Maddow echoed what we knew all along about the election, that Republicans were relying on their "gut" that it would be a Romney landslide, that Karl Rove had pointed to the enthusiastic crowds, which "turned out to be a bad way to predict an election."

But Colbert said never say die, there's still a path for Romney to 270:

"He just needs to get Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, and the secret state only Republicans can see... Whitesylvania."

It was a gratuitous laugh line, but he boiled down the Rachel Maddow Show as well as any ever has:

"You deconstruct the day's news like the parts of a car on a lawn...but then you reconstruct those pieces into -- a conservative dream-killing machine."

Maddow laughed and said she didn't want to kill anybody's dream. She responded in her typically wonkish way, trying really, really hard not to offend.

"There's an important role to play in disabusing people of their fantasies that do not comport with what's going on in the real world."

As for the role of Sandy in the election, Colbert pressed Maddow on what caused hurricanes, telling her the answer was "gay people." Maddow blushed and quipped back, asking if gay people were responsible for lowering barometric pressure.

The interview fell short in a couple of areas. Colbert promoted, but never discussed Maddow's book, Drift. Because the conversation was only five minutes long. Which did both of these brilliant minds, and the audience, a disservice.

Republicans and the Five Stages of Grief

We bounced around Downtown Athens Ohio last night, first at Stephen's On Court, then hit the early stages of an election party at The Pigskin. MSNBC and CBS local were on the big screens, and Ball State/Toledo was nowhere to be found.

It was early and the action was slow, so I got to texting some of my conservative friends, simply asking (needling) "which stage of grief are you in?"

1. Denial and Isolation

The first response told me not to gloat yet, that you can't believe the polls. I can imagine him now in front of Fox News in his sweatsuit shaking his Magic 8-Ball until he gets the right result.

Nate Silver told us all along exactly what was going to happen, but like on climate change and evolution, deniers will just deny.

2. Anger

"I feel bad for this country, having four more years of your boy!" The truth is this friend's life (or mine) isn't truly affected by whomever was elected. And he recognized that projecting his sympathies for the country (he even mentioned the 53% - ouch!).

Donald Trump was obviously the bellweather for anger, calling the election a "sham" and calling for "revolution." He actually hit Stages 1 & 2 there, but he'd get to all 5 quickly enough if you kept an open mic in front of his piehole.

3. Bargaining

"At least I still live in a red state" was one I heard more than once, as I live in one too. Or "at least we still have the house." That's good, all of us are still bargaining with the same Executive/Legislative split, who have been unable to bargain with each other the last two years.

4. Depression

Surprisingly, I haven't seen a lot of this one yet. It was more evident during the coverage when Obama's campaign staff was appearing on every network with a bounce in their step, and nobody in the Romney camp was to be found.

It's hard not to be depressed when you work for months or years on something and then it's over. The silver lining for these retread political operatives is that we live in the land of opportunity (yes, it still is) and they're only a few months away from another election cycle and their next gig.

5. Acceptance

This one is the hardest to grasp. Mitch McConnell's #1 goal was to make Obama a one-term President, so now what? Making sure a GOP gets elected next time? That would breed the same obstructionism we've seen for the last two years. So you have to wonder whether this defeat will ever be accepted and anything will be changed. And one day I guess I'll have to accept that.

Yesterday, I predicted that 11 PM would be the hour this would be decided. Unfortunately I nodded off at about 11:05, and popped my eyes open at 11:25 to see that Obama had won. It was called at 11:12, when Iowa and Ohio were put into the winner's column. Naturally, Karl Rove didn't accept it.

Flash Backtime: Politics And Football Metaphors

Every four years we get to this point. Football is our #1 sport nationally, full of strategy and angles, and a clock that will eventually run out. So naturally we all equate the final drive of this election season to the closing of a football game.

And the blog I filed for SavannahNow.com four years ago still holds true today, taking the football analogies right in the huddle with the signal callers.

October 16, 2008

I wasn't going to watch last night's debate because I had already voted, but the dynamics of the process are far too fascinating to turn away from. I especially like how football is so ingrained in the analysis of the TV commentators.

How often did you hear that McCain needed a "Hail Mary" or that Obama merely had to "sit on his lead" or "run out the clock." There are plenty of boxing analogies too, but they aren't as fun. So I decided to take it a step further and compare the two candidates to former NFL Quaterbacks.

Barack Obama is Troy Aikman. Each came from limited means and had to overcome early career adversity. Obama lost his first bid for the U.S. Congress. Aikman had to transfer to UCLA after losing his starting gig at Oklahoma. But after some seasoning, and surrounding themselves with talented and well-versed ensembles, they exude cool, charisma, and confidence. And then they became champions.

John McCain is Archie Manning. The un-polished, over-emotive, scrappy risk-taker who gave his all. But because of a motley crew of flunkies at his side, and some terrible decisions of his own, not even his great determination could lead him to the top. His spirit will win legions of fans, but he will inevitably lose the big showdown.

Obama "took a knee" last night when the Governor Palin question came up. He could have unloaded on her the way she has on him. Lord knows, there's plenty of material. He could have expanded his lead and "run up the score" but he took the high road to win with class.

Maybe you favor the loveable loser over the collected champion. That is your right. But don't expect a monumental comeback on November 4, because your heart will be broken again.

November 3, 2012

So who is Mitt Romney in this cosmic political gridiron tapestry?

I'm going with Chris Simms. Romney, like the younger Simms, was born into royalty in his field. He had all the tutelage, grooming, and good hair one could possibly need to take the world by the balls.

Simms set records at Texas and Romney tore up the private sector, but when it was time to go pro the results were tepid at best. Simms's career NFL record of 7-9 is akin to Romney's record as as Massachusetts governor, where Romney claims to have coexisted in a bipartisan fashion with the state's legislature but had over 800 vetoes over-ridden.

Ultimately both lacked the toughness necessary to succeed at the highest level, and are resigned to live out the remainder of their careers inconsequently and on name recognition alone.

Horserace Handicappers: Double Standard Edition

We all know who Nate Silver is by now. He moved on from crunching baseball numbers, and his Five Thirty Eight site is a national phenomenon and the electoral predictor of record. Until it isn't.

His calculations are based on science and variables, weighting of national and state polls, and historical precedents. He mixes it all in some sort of witch's brew which spits out a probability. Kind of like a sportsbook or a racetrack, hence the "horserace" metaphor.

Since summer, Silver has placed the probability of Obama's reelection as high as 80%, and no lower than 60%, even when Romney overtook the President in the Real Clear Politics national poll average.

As of the time of this posting, Nate Silver has the president's chance at reelection at 78.4%. Coincidentally, European megabook PaddyPower.com has Obama as a 1/3 favorite. And InTrade.com has Obama with a 69/31 advantage.

Does this mean that Silver is touting Obama? Yes and no. If you're at the craps table and you roll a 2, 3, 4, or 12, that equates to Romney's chances. The rest of the field would be for the President. It's math.

If Obama wins, especially as closely to Silver's model in 2008, the method will be borne out. If Romney wins, Silver loses all credibility. How could he have forecasted Obama so boldly when it was clearly a toss-up election?

Meanwhile on the other side...Dick Morris is an assclown.

His post on Real Clear Politics today is titled, "Here Comes The Landslide." Morris sees the "erosion" of Obama's ground in Ohio, New Hampshire, and Iowa.

He says that in the next few days the battle will move to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. That "these new swing states look to be the battleground," with even New Jersey and Oregon coming into play. And Morris also says the GOP will see a net gain of six senate seats.

How RCP gives the same amount of space as Silver to someone so clearly in the hinterlands is a farce. The airtime he gets is less for everyone else to breathe.

His electoral map has Romney somewhere in the 350 range. According to Silver's science, the chances of that would be somewhere along the lines of rolling snake eyes four times in a row.

Now as an American, I fully support Morris's right to spew nonsense. What he lacks is both credibility and accountability. On what does he base these projections that allows him to contribute to the national discourse? And if he's wrong, will he admit he was wrong on November 7th?

There's the double standard. Nate Silver's cottage industry needs success to be credible. Dick Morris can predict anything he wants with no consequence.

And in a nutshell, there's the difference in the two bases. One side follows the facts, the other side takes it on faith.

Getting Off The Mat

Another night watching two things at once. And believe me, I much rather would've had a picture of the resurgent New York Yankees to lead today's weblog. But no such picture exists as the Yankees now face elimination, trailing Detroit 3-0 in the ALCS. More on that in a bit.

But in the meantime, our President showed some resiliency and some fight after a comatose doppelganger had apparently usurped his body in Denver 12 nights earlier.

I can't remember a debate of any kind affecting me so much. The first 40 minutes were so full of testy exchanges and personal space invasions, it made my heart race.

Certainly Romney had good moments and bad moments, and I felt he didn't lose so much as President Obama was a total badass.

My initial prediction that in a setting with average members of the electorate, Romney was bound to say something unrehearsed that would underscore his being out of touch. And that turned out to be true, on the issue of women in the workplace. Not that I think the "binders full of women" comment that everyone has run with was so bad. But more the context of women in the workplace, and talking about flexible hours so they can get home and make dinner, etc.

It reminds us that Mitt grew up, and subsequently raised his family in Pleasantville. Where breakfast and dinner were always on the table for Mr. Breadwinner. He is just now trying to re-adapt his thinking that things might be different, but he's too old to change. Except his position on abortion, and guns, and health care.

This is something the President gets. They aren't "women's issues," they are family issues and pocketbook issues.

And on this night, when Romney tried to make his own rules of the debate format, he couldn't just steamroll the moderator and the sitting President like they were long-haired hippies at Cranbrook. He was stood up to and put in his place.

When Mr. Romney did have a good comeback, asking the President to check his own overseas investments in his pension, Mr. Obama one-upped him, saying his pension wasn't as big so it wouldn't take as long to read.

And on Libya, the President adhered to The Art Of War axiom (or maybe it was from a comic book): "Never get in the way of your enemy when he is trying to destroy himself."

Hence: Please proceed, Governor. Or as those on Twitter pointed out in real time "The new fuck you."

Former GOP strategist Steve Schmidt remarked that Romney had a good debate on jobs, the economy and on energy. But he was blunt about where Mr. Romney had mis-stepped into fact-check hell:

"Romney's weakest moment was clearly on Libya. He stuck his chin out and got walloped."

Who really won and who lost the night, much like Denver, could be summed up in a wife's facial expression.

Here was the forced grin after watching your soulmate go through the meat grinder, far from the unbridled joy immediately after the first debate.

Meanwhile in Detroit, things continued along their projected path. Despite the much-needed insertion of Eduardo Nunez into the lineup, as he was the only one who could touch Justin Verlander with a solo HR in the 9th. And he turned out to be a difference maker instead of a liability at shortstop as well.

Both Nunez and Eric Chavez (starting for a benched A-Rod) made brilliant defensive plays to keep the game at 2-0 to set the stage for the 9th inning rally. But Jim Leyland and the Tigers smartly went to ex-Yank Phil Coke rather than the super-combustible Jose Valverde to close it.

Now the Yankees face the near-impossible task of winning 4 straight to get to the World Series. It makes me remember 2004 and the curse I placed on my own team when the Yanks took a 3-0 ALCS lead over Boston.

We were in Toledo for a football game, and the Yankees had just won Game 3 going away, 19-8. I put my arm around Bubba, a lifelong Sox fan, and out of pure placation I uttered the following words:

"Just because it hasn't been done, doesn't mean it can't be done."

The Red Sox tied the game in the 9th against Mariano Rivera in Game 4, ultimately winning in 12; and then they won Game 5 in 14 innings.

Game 6 was the Curt Schilling/bloody sock game, and I didn't see it though I listened to every pitch as I drove my family through the night from Omaha to Kalamazoo. We were moving!

The apartment in Kalamazoo was cable-ready, so my first night in my new home was going to be Game 7 of the ALCS. But there was no celebration for my guys, and there was no drama. Kevin Brown got lit up by Johnny Damon and shut down Derek Lowe (both later found their way to the Yankees) and the long Michigan winter was upon us.

But it was in my 3 years in Michigan that I fell in love (sort of) with another team, the Detroit Tigers. During my time there, they went from doormats to league champions. Day-in, day-out, I watched an all-out CF who could actually hit and tear up the bases named Curtis Granderson, and a rookie pitching  sensation named Justin Verlander.

I will cheer like hell for the Tigers should they advance. But first there's CC Sabathia tonight to get the Yankees off the mat, and we'll take it one at a time from there.

Right Place, Right Time on Frontline: The Choice 2012

Much has been made about Big Bird becoming an endangered species should a certain GOP nominee become President, but the defunding of PBS would be a big deal.

Aside from Sesame Street and other educational programming, Antique Roadshow, Austin City Limits, and those quirky British serials, the PBS news department is something that truly preserves the public trust. As stressed in Dan Rather's book, network and cable news have become arms of corporations, slaves to ratings, and in bed with corporate sponsors. (Although some conservatives would have you believe that the Federal government is PBS' primary corporate sponsor)

Only on PBS could you have an even-handed, in-depth 2-hour documentary on the complete lives of the two men running for president, without sponsors, without an agenda, and thus without fear of repercussion. Frontline's The Choice 2012 was Masterpiece Theater indeed.

The program is divided up into alternating segments on each candidate, and it bounces around in time a little since Mitt Romney is significantly older than Barack Obama. The Frontline brain trust is too smart for chapter titles, but I'm not.

1. Whatever Doesn't Kill You Makes You Stronger

The program opens up with Romney's first launch into politics, the 1994 Massachusetts senatorial debate with Ted Kennedy at Faneuil Hall. It shows Romney, a handsome 47 at the time, as very poised and articulate. Ultimately he was deconstructed by the consummate political pro. But Romney was in the game at a high level and learned from his defeat.

Obama's run at Congress in 2000 was a lot less rewarding. In a primary battle to unseat incumbent Dem Bobby Rush (IL-1), he was painted as a bookworm who wasn't black enough to win on Chicago's south side. He had "more degrees than a thermometer" but was a "Harvard-educated fool." Obama lost by 30 points. His political career was at a crossroads, and Michelle wanted him to give it up.

2. Identity Crises

Mitt Romney grew up in a solid family with great schooling in Michigan. His father George is painted reverentially as a self-made, straight-talking, and larger-than-life father figure. A man born on a polygamist compound in Mexico with no college degree became the President of American Motors and moderate Republican Governor of Michigan.

Mitt watched from the arena floor at the 1964 GOP convention in San Francisco when his father walked out during Barry Goldwater's extremist acceptance speech.

Mitt enrolled at Stanford, but the area was rife with the counter-culture of the mid-1960s. Romney was a creature of the previous era and didn't belong there.

"Barry" Obama had no real structure in his formative years. His father was out of the picture, his mother got married and dragged him to Indonesia, and he returned to Hawaii at age 10 to live with his grandparents. He was a "black-looking white kid" without any real family identification.

But his non-affiliation with a single group made him adaptable to all groups. In high school, he became the ringleader of a diverse group of kids that called themselves "The Choom Gang." They were typical laid-back Hawaiians who were very inclusive and smoked a lot of dope.

3. Finding Themselves

Romney left Stanford after one year to go to France for his LDS mission. It was there he knocked on thousands of doors trying to find would-be converts, and learned a lot about rejection. He also saw the dark side of politics from afar as his father George was vilified for his comment about being "brainwashed" by US military leaders regarding the Vietnam war.

In 1968, Romney had a near-death experience in a car accident in France that killed the passenger in the vehicle, the mission's mother. The under-publicized event is said to shape Mitt's life in his bolstered faith, his burning ambition, and overwhelming drive to succeed. His life was spared and he was going to make it count.

Obama enrolled at Occidental College in LA. Again, he couldn't be put in a box. He was the easygoing black kid who was always in Hawaiian shirts and shorts. The international crowd of college was something that "Barry" pulled together.

But at some point he realized that he was just floating along, and he transferred to Columbia University in New York City. It was there he saw the poverty and urban struggle, and decided to get serious about his life. That's when Barry decided to return to his given name, Barack.

After 4 years in New York which remain largely a mystery, Barack took a job as a community organizer on Chicago's south side to get on the ground in the inner city and do good works. But being an outsider and a do-gooder wasn't enough to change anything, so he went to go get a law degree.

4. Soulmates And Successes

When Romney returned from France, his high school girlfriend Ann Davies was literally waiting for him. She had embedded herself with the Romneys during his absence, and they converted her. She and Mitt were married 3 months after his return.

Romney finished his undergrad work at BYU and then went to Harvard Law and Business School. The law degree was what his father wanted, the business degree was what he wanted.

Romney's timing into the business world was fortunate. The "corporate ladder" structure was becoming a thing of the past and now outsiders were being contracted to "consult" and make businesses more cost-efficient from the top down.

Romney was hired by Bill Bain, took a chance on Staples which came up huge, focused Bain Capital on "leveraged buyouts," and the rest is history. Romney made hundreds of millions for himself and his investors.

Obama got a glimpse of future partisan wars while at the Harvard Law School. In a most politically-contentious environment, he became the first black president of the Harvard Law Review, and was known to reach out to both sides. He saw his job was to put out a first-rate publication, and politics didn't figure in.

With that on his resume, Obama could have clerked for a Supreme Court Justice or the U.S. Attorney's office, but chose to return to Chicago to work in the community and teach law. It didn't hurt that while he was a summer associate at a law firm there, he met a young lawyer named Michelle Robinson.

5. Rising Stars

Romney became a Bishop in the Mormon Church, where he realized the tension in that role. He was convincing those to live by the scripture, but at the same time there was the missionary element with a need to help those who needed it most. The LDS credo is "build the Kingdom of God upon the Earth." Romney, as a church bigwig, saw himself as a vessel for that end.

When a bribery scandal engulfed the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics, they called in Mitt Romney to save it. Mitt took on the challenge despite Ann's recent diagnosis of Multiple Sclerosis.

He lined up corporate sponsors (and lobbied the federal government) for big money and put forward a high-end product. Ann Romney ran with the torch and Mitt Romney stood with the President for the opening ceremonies.

In 2004, Barack Obama was a hardly-known State Senator from Illinois who was somehow selected to deliver the keynote address at the 2004 DNC. It was his famous speech about unity and inclusion, the speech he'd been writing his whole life.

After elected Senator in 2006, Obama rapidly grew bored as a cog in the machine. Since 2008 would be a free-for-all, Obama was advised not to wait and live a life of a career back-bencher (his VP choice comes to mind). He ran on the same thing he'd always preached, breaking down the partisan walls and uniting America.

Hillary Clinton openly mocked Obama's message and turned out to be more realistic, "You can't wave a magic wand and make special interests disappear." Obama's message won out, and in 4 years he went from an unknown state senator to the most famous man on earth. It was amazing enough to think that anything was possible.

6. Health Care

Romney ran for Governor in 2002, and had to assume a socially liberal agenda to get elected in Massachusetts. In the gubernatorial debate against Shannon O'Brien, Romney said, "I will preserve and protect a woman's right to choose." She echoed Ted Kennedy's claim that Romney "isn't pro-choice, he's multiple choice."

Romney won narrowly, and took his first elected office at age 55. Like Obama, Romney wasn't interested in wheeling and dealing and the backslapping that comes with the political process. He wasn't a political creature, he was an executive, and he had 800 vetoes over-ridden by the state's predominantly Democratic legislature.

But Romney did get at least one thing done, something major. He found a way to get health coverage for more Massachusetts residents at a lower cost. It was called the "individual mandate," based on an idea from the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank.

Romney got the state government to buy in, but needed federal dollars to get it rolling. Enter old rival Ted Kennedy to procure the money from Washington to funnel to The Bay State. Romney and Kennedy returned to Faneuil Hall to announce the implementation of the law in 2006.

Romney was charming and glib, referring to the 1994 debate like "The Titanic returning to the iceberg." Romney and Kennedy were a Vaudeville duo that night. It was the type of bipartisan effort that has eluded Obama from the start.

Obama was inaugurated in 2008 clinging to the view that polarization could be overcome. Six weeks into his term, in the midst of a great financial crisis, he tried to pass universal health care but couldn't sell it. He eventually watered down his plan to mirror the one fashioned in Massachusetts by then-governor Mitt Romney.

Finally in March 2010, on the 216th vote, the Affordable Care Act ("ObamaCare") passed the House 219-212 without a single Republican vote to what had initially been a Republican plan. It was a party line vote, and a referendum against the President.

It wasn't the victory he wanted nor the change he promised. Being President was about working the system, not changing the system. And the system was changing Obama instead.

7. Changes In Character

Romney decided not to run for re-election in 2006, instead deciding to focus on the 2008 presidential race. He met with with a prominent Iowa GOP delegation in the penthouse of a Boston hotel and they were blunt with him.

They brought up the problem of the Three M's: Mormonism, Massachusetts, and Multi-Millionaire. All three were third-rails to the evangelical, middle-American conservative base.

Mormonism meant polygamy, Massachusetts meant "moderate," and Multi-Millionaite meant "out-of-touch." Ann Romney allegedly stormed out of the meeting.

Romney made a calculated, "political conversion" on abortion. He lost Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida, and dropped out of the '08 race thinking he'd never have another shot.

In 2010, the Tea Party wave led a new freshman class into Congress and the GOP was even more galvanized to thwart Obama's every move. It made him more skeptical, cynical, and ill-tempered.

Even moves hard-right by the President on foreign policy couldn't sway any conservatives. While winding down the Iraq war, he ramped up the secret wars, covert operations and drone strikes. He's the only Nobel Peace Prize winner with a kill list. And that agenda hasn't won any friends among progressives.

The Takeaway

PBS details all the accomplishments in Romney's life. But his campaign, and specifically his campaign against the health care law he created, is symbolic of the candidate he's become. He'll say anything to any crowd, and run away from his achievements to reach his ends, the presidency.

But if he doesn't have a consistent core message, what's driving him besides ambition? And how will he govern if he gets there? The answers seem to be "multiple choice."

PBS shows Obama's pre-presidency resume as considerably thinner than Romney's. It makes the point abundantly clear that he went from unknown to US President in 4 years, not exactly by luck, but as a symbol of hope and change without the experience to practically accomplish what he had promised.

While he has grown in the office and gotten quite a bit done despite the obstruction he's faced, the idealism he represented has been stripped away. If elected to a second term, you have to think that he won't be worried about making any friends on either side.

* Editor's Note: This is not a journalistic work. There are paraphrases and misquotes without accreditation. It is a synopsis, a "Cliffs Notes" if you will, of a brilliant documentary by Michael Kirk and Frontline. And a little bit of opinion from the Backtime Editorial Department, as always.

Well...At Least The Yankees Won

I'll get to the spin in a minute.

When you're stuck in a hotel room in Syracuse, New York, and your team is fighting for the division title on the last day of the season, you make sure you're in front of the TV. So that was the plan, watch the Yankees on TV and stream the debate so I could monitor the proceedings.

The problem was the Yankees were on ESPN, which was blacked out in Syracuse since local cable gets YES Network, but not in my hotel. So I ducked out with a friend for the first few innings to Tully's Good Times.

So I made it back to the room by 9 PM, put the Yankees/Red Sox on WatchESPN on my laptop, and the Presidential debate on the big screen - which only magnified its contents.

Mr. Romney won the debate. He took the fight to the President and the moderator, and his worst moments were no less than net equal. Whether Romney's arguments matched up with anything he proposed prior is another matter. He looked presidential, and as Backtime penned two days ago:

"The issues are crucial and the important men will be at their lofty podiums, and Jim Lehrer will be there to be a PBS above-it-all bastion of journalistic integrity, but don't be fooled. This is all PR. And only one of the two candidates can relate to the public."

The President folded his PR advantage. He wasn't relating to the public, he was Things To Do In Denver When You're Dead. But now the spin part.

First, is the Right more happy that Romney kicked Obama's ass - or are they troubled by Romney's defense of regulation, reaffirmation of his own Massachusetts health care plan, and praise of Education Secretary Arne Duncan, while claiming he would not cut education? Romney Etch-A-Sketched all night and Obama didn't call him on it.

Second, was the Team Obama plan to have Romney talk himself to death to continue to compile soundbites to counter all the policies he's planted on the trail? That would be rope-a-dope, and that might have been part of the plan. But to borrow a wonderful baseball philosophy, it wasn't just one sacrifice bunt to move a runner over, it was many. And each is a missed opportunity for a big inning and the chance to get on the scoreboard.

Third is pure spin, and as far as I could tell it's my own theory. A week ago, the GOP presidential race looked lost and there was real talk of that massive pool of SuperPAC money going to Republican senate and congressional candidates.

Now it's a race again, and while not dead by any stretch, probabilities point to Romney losing. So all that Big Money is back in the Big Race, and not siphoned out to the state and district races. So Romney's debate win may actually help Dem congressional and senate candidates.

I've heard all sorts of post-mortem commentary, comparing this debate to Bush-Kerry 1. The President stood stiff while a seasoned politician framed the debate. The challenger pulled even in the polls, but the President pulled out a close election.

And a close election is what the media wants. Blowouts are bad for business. More papers will be sold, and more TV newshours with garner ratings points.

The first Obama/Romney debate will go down in history. But will it be a turning point, or merely a plot point in the 2102 story?

Debated To Death

There are times when the the 24-hour news cycle is gripping, and there are times we all want to throw in the towel. How many times can we handle the pre-debate analysis? Well here's one more, except this one doesn't pull punches.

It's as if all the cliches are on a loop: "Do no harm," "Frame the argument," "Have a zinger ready." But here's the problem for Mr. Romney - you can't be over-prepared. Then you seem too rehearsed, inauthentic and stiff. Not that Romney's had any problem connecting with people (Backtime's Editorial Department just unloaded an incredulous Al Gore sigh).

Romney's best moments from the GOP debates were actually off the cuff. He dismissed a floundering Rick Perry with more than one "Nice try" and he told Newt Gingrich if he was on his staff and proposed some moon colony he'd be "fired."

Romney has had plenty of time to memorize his talking points, layered arguments, and even a canned zinger or two, but he would have to have a spontaneous moment to do anything impactful. So the bar's been set pretty low.

That seems to be the prevailing view but Romney surrogate Chris Christie, the Governor of my home state, didn't seem to get the memo. Christie was on all three network Sunday morning shows (were they offering free danish?) talking about how the race would be turned "upside down come Thursday morning." Was that a prediction or a pep talk?

The President, on the other hand, has been playing a much more conservative (small "c") game the last few weeks, looking to sit on his lead. Which means now is the time to unload. It will be the first time America sees Mr. Obama with his opponent on the same stage, and should waste no time discrediting him.

Obama has 90 minutes to hit Romney over and over on something that Romney can't possibly defend, his flexibility on nearly every issue. I wouldn't be surprised if the President drops "Etch-A-Sketch" as the soundbite moment that every media outlet runs with.

A few weeks back at the DNC everyone was raving about The First Lady's high-energy speech and President Clinton's fun, educational address. But the most effective speaker was Senator John Kerry, who laid the groundwork for the pummeling that's about to take place:

"Mr. Romney...you'd better finish the debate with yourself."

The issues are crucial and the important men will be at their lofty podiums, and Jim Lehrer will be there to be a PBS above-it-all bastion of journalistic integrity, but don't be fooled. This is all PR. And only one of the two candidates can relate to the public.

Paper Backtime: Marco Rubio, Behind The Music

On June 19th of this year, two dueling Marco Rubio biographies were released on the same day. On the left American Son, the memoir/autobiography of the Florida Senator and conservative rock star. On the right The Rise Of Marco Rubio, the unauthorized biography by Washington Post writer Manuel Roig-Franzia. Which one do you think I read?

Roig-Franzia's work is investigative to put it lightly. The text of the book, including afterword is 244 pages. After that, there are 32 pages of source notes. Much of the professional end is kind of boring, unless you like the hero's ascension through local and state politics. But as Rubio's life story is peeled back layer-by-layer, you can see why he wasn't the VP pick.

Would Rubio have helped Romney's chances? Maybe. Would he have dragged more drama into a ticket already riddled with soap opera? Absolutely. Not that anything necessarily disqualifies Rubio from the job. But the national vetting process would've caught wildfire with all the issues the book details, especially in a 3-month sprint to the finish.

Rubio's story, which is uniquely American by the way, is better deconstructed over the long haul. He could announce in 2015 and let the media and his GOP opponents have at it. What would be massive distractions to the campaign now would be something he and his strategists could tackle individually over the long haul.

Before chronicling the problems with Marco Rubio's own narrative, it's important to point out that he's not Tea Party. Yes he rode the insurgent wave against the GOP establishment in 2010 as he was a massive underdog to Florida's then-Governor Charlie Crist, and incorporated the movement into a landslide victory.

He essentially sent Crist packing to the other side. And Crist's chief strategist, Stuart Stevens, who managed a huge lead into a woeful defeat is doing his unwitting best to unravel Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign.

Rubio was the House Speaker in one of the purplest states in the country. While he wasn't a household name, he was a political animal. He got the Tea Party support because Crist infamously hugged President Obama. Godfather Jim DeMint gave the blessing, but once in the Senate Rubio opted not to join Rand Paul's Tea Party Caucus.

On the whole Rubio's bio is conservative enough, definitively on social issues and mostly (a converted GOP spender) on financial ones. But he's been moderate-to-progressive on immigration, and had to modify his position several times as the GOP candidates tried to out-reactionary each other in the early 2012 debates.

Rubio's mantra is about a family being welcomed in the America, and the land of opportunity made it possible for him to be where he is today. Which is true. Except he wasn't exactly forthcoming with his story's specifics, and it might seem as though it was politicized to raise his profile.

Rubio went on the stump and kick-started his web bio as his family was in exile, fleeing from the thug Castro's Cuba. But the real story is that his parents arrived in May of 1956, a good 2 1/2 years before Castro took power.

And while it's true that after Castro the Rubio family could not return to their homeland, they were immigrants, not refugees. In fact Rubio's grandfather, Pedro Victor Garcia was a proud man. When he realized that he couldn't find good work in the US and was tired of depending on his seven daughters and their husbands, he returned to Cuba in 1959 to make a better living.

If anyone ever scratched their head about what on earth Mitt Romney meant by "self-deportation," this encapsulates it. Garcia actually took a job with the Cuban government (Castro regime) before returning to the US in 1962, attempting to re-enter for good. An immigration judge ordered him deported, but the Cuban Missile Crisis began, and his return to Cuba became logistically impossible though his presence in the US remained illegal for several years until his permanent residency was approved in 1967.

The point here is that Cuban-Americans are held politically in higher regard than other Latino immigrants because of their escape from Communist rule. Again it doesn't diminish the Rubio success story, but the circumstances under which the family arrived from Cuba are not political, and not exploitable for political gain.

There's more family baggage of note. Rubio's sister's husband, brother-in-law Orlando Cicilia, was convicted on a drug trafficking/money laundering deal in 1987. He didn't seem to be a major player, but it was for a major honcho (think Calderone from Miami Vice). He wound up serving 12 years on a 25-year sentence.

How does this affect Marco Rubio, who was roaming in the defensive secondary at South Miami High at the time? Likely not at all. But it became a major dust-up with Univision when they broke the story. Which could be another reason Rubio isn't ready for the national glare, that he reacts hotly and needs time to grow a thicker skin to play the bigger game.

Then there are the corrupt types around him. Rubio's very first fundraiser when running for US Senate was thrown by Alan Mendelsohn, a notorious GOP donor, who later was sentenced to four years in prison for bribery, siphoning PAC funds, and failing to report 600K in income.

And members of Rubio's inner-circle have also found trouble. State Legislator Ralph Arza faced pressure to resign after using racial slurs more than once. And his itimidation tactics later led to a guilty plea in a witness-tampering case. He got six months.

Rubio's other right-hand man David Rivera, is now the US Representative from Florida's 25th district. He has repeatedly been under investigation related to financial disclosures, and possible kickbacks received from gambling proprietors (dog track owners).

Despite Rubio's fierce anti-gambling track record (he saw the destruction of lives throughout his years in Vegas), he and Rivera are best buddies. They were even involved in a foreclosure proceeding for a house they co-owned in Tallahassee, which was quickly rectified.

But many of Rubio's personal finances are co-mingled with his political ones. There are many situations over the years where his RNC card was used to pay for personal stuff, big and small. Rubio always seemed to work the matters out, but it could be interpreted as he was trying to slide some purchases through.

That could be in part due to his own personal financial disclosures, which showed an ongoing debt problem (into low six figures) that could be viewed in direct opposition to the public profile of personal responsibility. In later years, the lucrative sale of property to a campaign contributor also raised some flags.

These items from the Florida political landscape are documented matter-of-factly by Roig-Franzia. Corruption and kickbacks are nothing new to the Florida state politics, or would it be to any other state. It's the price of doing business, and Rubio doesn't come across as a criminal or an angel.

Rubio's religious history is also a zigzag. He was born Catholic, converted to Mormon when his family moved to Las Vegas in his middle school years, became Catholic again when the family returned to Miami, then went Baptist as an adult while eventually settling on Catholic.

His straddling of the line between the different branches of Christianity may also come across as calculated. After all, in order to embrace all of Florida, it would be wise to caucus with the Spanish-speaking Catholics in Miami while simultaneously thumping bibles in the panhandle. Throw in some pandering to rich Jews in Boca (make sure you check for hidden cameras) and you've got the trifecta.

What the book doesn't capture is the charismatic figure and captivating speaker that Rubio has become, you'd probably have to read the other book to tap into that. He is championed by republicans up and down the line, and seems respected by democrats as well.

His endorsement of Romney was tepid (like many), he's kept a fairly low profile throughout 2012, and looks to be gauging which way the future GOP wind blows, so he can adjust his sail accordingly.

Attempted Murder of Satire: David Brooks

What I saw today streaming virally was the equivalent of seeing this.

We bicker about 30-second negative adds which are misleading at best, whether it be a SuperPac slamming Bain Capital or Romney torching Obama on welfare. But all the "experts" seem to agree that the spots work - they appeal to the visceral biases of the American voter - the lowest common denominator. Joe Sixpack doesn't get sarcasm.

Which is why today's David Brooks opinion column The Real Romney makes no sense. Not that it wasn't somewhat clever, but what was the point and who is it reaching? New York Times Republicans?

Here are some snippets:

Mitt Romney was born on March 12, 1947, in Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Virginia and several other swing states.

He was given the name Mitt, after the Roman god of mutual funds, and launched into the world with the lofty expectation that he would someday become the Arrow shirt man.

The Romneys had a special family tradition. The most cherished member got to spend road trips on the roof of the car. 

Romney also went on a mission to France. He spent two years knocking on doors, failing to win a single convert. This was a feat he would replicate during his 2008 presidential bid.

After Harvard, he took his jawline to Bain Consulting, a firm with very smart people with excessive personal hygiene. While at Bain, he helped rescue many outstanding companies, like Pan Am, Eastern Airlines, Atari and DeLorean.

After a successful stint at Bain, Romney was lured away to run the Winter Olympics, the second most Caucasian institution on earth, after the G.O.P.

OK David Brooks. You aren't as pragmatic as your righty colleague Ross Douthat or as incendiary as your lefty counterpart Maureen Dowd. So I see your point in writing this...to establish some internet street cred.

But I'm not sure what to call it. If Bill Maher spoke or Matt Taibbi wrote those words, nobody would bat an eyelash. But since you're who you are, a conservative columnist at The New York Times, it's so rogue.

There are other places to take that kind of...work. There's the blogosphere, which you are eminently qualified for (this site for example). Or there's another publication where the editor could teach you about satire.

Or maybe the part you really wanted us to read was in your final paragraph:

At the convention, where his Secret Service nickname is Mannequin, Romney will talk about his real-life record: successful business leader, superb family man, effective governor, devoted community leader and prudent decision-maker.

But we've got a weeklong pageant from the national media for that. Which will be all but forgotten  by the end of next week.

Ryan Romney: The 6th Son

Come on. As far as handsome, presidential-looking, preppie guys go, we thought the Romneys had already cornered the market. But I guess Tagg, Matt, Josh, Ben and Craig were looking for a sixth for the three-on-three game to play on their own indoor fullcourt gymnasium, so enter their long-lost brother Ryan.

Or is this the shelved remake of The Sixth Sense: I See Rich White People?

I have to admit that I didn't think the Romney camp would go this direction. But everyone seems to have nailed the timing of the move. After a week Mr. Romney sunk in the polls, and he was struggling to get the campaign back on message, they found the messenger. And the timing of the pick was appropriate as well.

The selection could have been made much earlier, but if it took place during the Olympics, that would have shafted NBC News, who was essentially based with all their resources in London. It's another example of the media driving the news cycle, the polls, and everything related to the countdown to election day.

The pick was close enough to the end of the games (or "sport" as Colbert calls it re: Rafalca) that NBC didn't get caught with their pants down. But the exclusive still deservedly went to 60 Minutes and CBS' Bob Schieffer. Fareed Zakaria was next in line, but was waiting for Schieffer to ask the questions first.

The two political parties have differing opinions on the VP candidate, but nobody denies that this is a serious pick. Except for me. The physical similarity and collegial manner of these two is so strikingly similar, I can't get a particular image out of my head.

That's right, the diabolical "Number Two" (apropos for a #2 pick) from Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me, where Rob Lowe plays a younger Robert Wagner. They laugh at your inferior intellect and resources!

Who be GOP VP? Process of Elimination

It's Friday August 10. It's a week that Mr. Romney has seriously slipped in the polls (Obama +9 in latest FOX News sampling), and it appears more than ever he will need a "game changing" VP pick.

Since it is illegal to make wagers on such things in the US, except for Intrade (but call them contracts), we go to Ireland where you can gamble on anything. Here is the morning line from PaddyPower.com. 

The best way to approach this list is to forensically determine why they won't get picked and see who's left standing.

Paul Ryan (15/8) - Very fashionable of late, but likely a smokescreen. His budget plan can be tied to slashing of Medicare and will be a target for a huge voting bloc. But he's also a prominent member of the House of Representatives, part of the most unpopular congress ever. Out.

Rob Portman (15/8) - Puts Ohio in play for Romney - Nate Silver and 538 says it's GOP's best chance to turn a state, but very low-profile and would be unable to lift ticket in national polls. Doubtful.

Tim Pawlenty (5/2) - Has some name recognition, and a good mouthpiece. Wouldn't enthuse or alienate anybody. Possible but meh.

Marco Rubio (6/1) - I think Dems have been holding out on him, waiting to unload if he is chosen. There appears to be plenty beneath the surface in his personal history as well as his personal finances. Could be more toxic than Palin. Impossible.

Condoleeza Rice (8/1) - Very popular, huge name recognition, bridges race and gender gaps. But stances on social issues would create further rift in GOP than there already is. No way.

Bob McDonnell (9/1) - He's got perfect VP hair, but already been branded "Governor Ultrasound." Risky.

John Thune (12/1) - Very effective surrogate. The American Conservative Union gave him a rating of 100 in 2010. Hardcore Christian. There's been no real buzz about him to this point, so he can make a splash. The smart pick.

Kelly Ayotte (20/1) - Don't know anything about her. A Massachusetts/New Hampshire combo on GOP ticket? Never going to happen.

Chris Christie (22/1) - Political aspirations too high to be in a very likely losing election. Biding time for 4 years. He'll say no.

Bobby Jindal (22/1) - Will be problematic in the post-vet, after having been party to an exorcism in his past. Voodoo is fine in Louisiana, but not for the nation at large. No chance.

So I think Thune is a great play at 12/1, but if you want to look deep on the board consider these two:

Mike Huckabee (50/1) - Conservative, religious former southern Governor who would bring a level of consistency that the campaign has lacked to this point. His radio/TV gig might be a little lucrative to give up, but he probably wouldn't be out of it very long and it would only boost his national profile.

Ron Paul (66/1) - Stranger things have happened. If the "money" part of the GOP can assimilate "the base" it might be their best shot. But Paul is a maverick with steadfast convictions and it's doubtful there's a sweetheart deal he would ever accept.

Baracking Bad Part 1: What Will 51 Bring?

In a delicious, ironic twist, President Obama's 51st birthday comes one day before Breaking Bad celebrates Walter White's same birthday with an episode titled "Fifty One." It's got to be a conspiracy, right? Something to do with Area 51?

Well there doesn't seem to be much mystery or secrecy about the man on the left and how he will spend his next year. It will almost certainly be in the same Residence, with the nation watching his girls grow up.

The Real Clear Politics poll composite has Obama a slim +3.0 over Romney, with the number weighed down by the outlying conservative Rasmussen daily intake. The networks have also gone all in on the notion that the presidential race is coming down to the wire - as they are invested in the 24-hour news cycle and blowouts are bad for business. It's interesting to see two non-partisan numbers pop up in the last month: Pew Research had Obama +10 this week, and Bloomberg recently had him +13.

But more significantly, Irish oddsmaker PaddyPower.com has the sitting President at 2/5.

InTrade markets have Obama at +17.5 (in a 100-point share). That's not the be-all and end-all. On this exact date 4 years ago Obama's InTrade lead on McCain was +22.2, before an amazing but short-lived comeback by the McCain/Palin ticket who took a brief lead in the polls and the InTrade markets that were lost for good on September 18, 2008.

And mathematical election guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has Obama about to run away with it, with a 71% chance of winning. That's the same odds he forecasts for the president in Ohio, while seeing a 87% chance of winning Pennsylvania and an 88% chance of winning Michigan.

The electoral chances for Romney are described this morning by The Daily Beast's Michael Tomasky as "drawing an inside straight," and it's one where he'd likely need more than one card to fill it.

So rest easy on your birthday Mr. President. Hit 'em straight on the golf course, have your wife prepare you some sort of nutritionally sensible cake, crack open a beer and enjoy the Olympics.

Fifty One has a different meaning for me, so I'll throw on my Bernie Williams jersey and enjoy the Yankees/Ms game.

We'll take a look back at Walter White/Heisenberg's journey from 50 to 51, and try and map out the road to 52 (we know he'll get there), when Baracking Bad Part 2 continues...tomorrow.